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Weekly Market Commentary

Despite the shortened holiday week, traders found time to give the AI trade one final push up for the year. Once again, good news became bad news. The Q3 GDP came in at a surprisingly stronger than expected 4.3% versus 3.8% the prior quarter. That raised concerns that a hotter economy might drive up inflation and dampen the chances for further rate cuts in 2026; bad for economically sensitive Small Cap and Value Stocks, good for Large Cap Growth Stocks tied to the secular AI growth story. The October Durable Goods Orders reinforced the strong outlook for the economy with its core capital goods subset coming in at a strong 6.4% versus 5.3% year over year. It was a quiet week for global economic news. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.40% with Foreign...... (click for more)

Benefits of Tactical

CLIENT-CENTRIC INVESTING: 
UTILIZING TACTICAL MANAGERS TO IMPROVE RISK/RETURN

Characteristics of Client Portfolios

The most common method for building multi-asset portfolios is based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The biggest issue we have with this approach is that it is not aligned with most investors’ view of risk. MPT utilizes a process that seeks an efficient portfolio with a given level of risk measured by return volatility. This misalignment manifests itself when the market is down 36%, and a portfolio is down 33%. In this case, the manager is patted on the back (receives a bonus) for outperforming their benchmark, and the investor is out 1/3 of their investment…  (click for more)

Monthly Market Commentary

After months of warning signals about a potential bubble from the announcements of escalating Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments (Cap Ex), technology stocks finally sold off. Interestingly, another bubble concern sold off with crypto currencies suffering double digit losses. Perhaps the extended government shutdown provided the catalyst for the sell off. Meanwhile, the economy continues to move forward with steady, moderate growth. The September Producer Price Index suggests inflation is holding steady at a 2.7% year over year rate. Overseas, Brazil is showing a rebound in business activity, while inflationary pressures are easing. China, while sustaining solid growth, is nonetheless reporting volatile swings in housing prices...... (click for more)