Tariff concerns still hung heavy on the markets and held sway over the actual economic news. Data on the
services sector, housing and jobs showed an economy holding steady. As expected, the Fed held rates steady in
light of tariff uncertainty against an economy that “is good shape”. Overseas, key business activity indicators
remained...
Weekly Commentary
Monthly Commentary
List of Services
US and Foreign Developed financial markets reacted to the new US/Japan trade deal with a strong rally. The deal reduces tariffs on Japan in return for greater access for US goods into the Japanese economy and a $550 billion investment by Japan into the US economy. Meanwhile, the economic data showed manufacturing muddling along and a lethargic housing market. However, a continued......
The week saw a number of data points showing inflation holding on to its progress. Two important regional manufacturing surveys indicated a strong snap back in current and projected activity. Housing is still stumbling with persistently high mortgage rates. However, the news that really moved markets was Nvidia receiving assurances from the White House that it can resume......
The onslaught of news activated more cross currents in the financial markets. Tariffs again took the headlines. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper and new tariff levels on Canada, Japan and South Korea. He also emphasized that the August 1, 2025 tariff deadline date will not change. There were also rumors of new sanctions coming on Russia in response to its escalation of the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it was a relatively........
Speculation on the direction of hostilities in Iran dominated the focus of financial markets. Meanwhile, there was good economic news on inflation and the May Retail Sales Report displayed a vibrant consumer with year over year “core” retail sales up a solid 4.57%.....
It was a nice week for financial markets reacting positively to favorable news on inflation and US/China trade talks. Then came a new war in the Middle East with Isreal attacking Iran’s nuclear and military sites Thursday evening. Financial markets went into a selloff on Friday, bringing....
A solid May Jobs Report with 139,000 new jobs and an April Job Openings Report showing 7.391M openings versus 7.200M the prior month, instilled more optimism in the economy’s ability to weather tariffs. Fears over tariffs also eased on the news of talks over the upcoming weekend in London between US and China representatives. Overseas, economic data remined....
We now have a new market tantrum to join the heretofore tumultuous “Trump Tariff Tantrum” (TTT). Last week saw the introduction of the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) tantrum. It started the week before on Friday May 16 with Moody’s issuing a downgrade credit rating on US Treasuries on concerns over a growing budget deficit. We do not believe their timing was coincidental ....
Well, tariffs taketh and tariffs giveth. On Monday, the Trump administration announced that the US and China agreed to suspend the 115% in new tariff rates for 90 days. That led to an explosive rally in US and Emerging Market Equities. Generally good economic data during the week was further eclipsed by President Trump’s trip to Saudia Arabia. That trip led to pledges by several.....
Tariff concerns still hung heavy on the markets and held sway over the actual economic news. Data on the
services sector, housing and jobs showed an economy holding steady. As expected, the Fed held rates steady in
light of tariff uncertainty against an economy that “is good shape”. Overseas, key business activity indicators
remained...
Monthly Commentary
The month sure offered up enough headlines for everybody. Markets rallied on the announcement of a June 10, 2025 US/China framework to resolve trade issues. Then markets sunk with Isreal’s attacks against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Then they rallied with the successful US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the ensuing Isreal/Iran cease fire. Meanwhile, the hard economic data continued......
From the April doom and gloom on tariffs, tariff headlines in May spurred a strong financial market rally. It started with the Mid-may announcement that the US and China suspended their triple digit tariffs for 90 days. Then, in the last week of May, the US Court of International Trade struck down many of the administration’s tariffs. Never mind the next day an Appeals Court put a stay on that ruling until....
The month opened with a bang. President Trump announced “Liberation Day” on April 2nd with the unveiling of a new regimen of reciprocal tariffs. They were much broader and more severe than anticipated. If the President wanted to get the world’s attention that he was serious about reordering the global trade landscape, he succeeded. The S&P 500 promptly declined -9.05% that week with....
Tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. That pretty much dominated the economic news, leading to a crescendo of panic over uncertainty. That culminated in a large selloff on the last Friday of the month in reaction (overreaction) to an otherwise benign inflation report and reaffirmation of an earlier in the month estimate of the March Consumer Sentiment Survey (which we consider a whimsical, headline reacting indicator). Meanwhile, the economy looks to be....
Financial markets are high priced in an environment of rapidly shifting fiscal policy, which makes them susceptible to quick emotional reactions to headlines. Markets shrugged off upticks in inflation to post gains through mid-month. The following week they focused on marginal economic indicators to suggest the economy might be headed into a recession and proceed to a substantial....
There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....