Tariff concerns still hung heavy on the markets and held sway over the actual economic news. Data on the
services sector, housing and jobs showed an economy holding steady. As expected, the Fed held rates steady in
light of tariff uncertainty against an economy that “is good shape”. Overseas, key business activity indicators
remained...
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A solid May Jobs Report with 139,000 new jobs and an April Job Openings Report showing 7.391M openings versus 7.200M the prior month, instilled more optimism in the economy’s ability to weather tariffs. Fears over tariffs also eased on the news of talks over the upcoming weekend in London between US and China representatives. Overseas, economic data remined....
We now have a new market tantrum to join the heretofore tumultuous “Trump Tariff Tantrum” (TTT). Last week saw the introduction of the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) tantrum. It started the week before on Friday May 16 with Moody’s issuing a downgrade credit rating on US Treasuries on concerns over a growing budget deficit. We do not believe their timing was coincidental ....
Well, tariffs taketh and tariffs giveth. On Monday, the Trump administration announced that the US and China agreed to suspend the 115% in new tariff rates for 90 days. That led to an explosive rally in US and Emerging Market Equities. Generally good economic data during the week was further eclipsed by President Trump’s trip to Saudia Arabia. That trip led to pledges by several.....
Tariff concerns still hung heavy on the markets and held sway over the actual economic news. Data on the
services sector, housing and jobs showed an economy holding steady. As expected, the Fed held rates steady in
light of tariff uncertainty against an economy that “is good shape”. Overseas, key business activity indicators
remained...
Finally, tariffs provided an excuse for a market rally. Last Wednesday President Trump said the China tariffs were not going to be as high as the pending 145%. On Friday, he also stated the US is “very close” to a tariff deal with Japan. Some added comfort came from Trump stating that he had no intention......
With the exception of manufacturing sentiment, the economic news painted a picture of a still stable economy. Housing is holding steady at its yearlong pace, employment is solid with very low unemployment claims and there were further signs of.......
Tariffs again dominated the news and financial market action last week. The source of the massive US stock market rally was Trump’s 90- day pause for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, positive economic news came in the form of inflation numbers. The March CPI reported -0.1% versus 0.2% the prior month and 2.4% versus 2.8% year over year the prior month. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) reported -0.4% versus 0.1% the prior month.........
The focus on tariffs in March took full center stage last week with the April 2nd (after trading hours) announcement of President Trump’s Liberation Day formal tariff plan. The tariffs were much broader and deeper than expected which cemented fears of a global trade war triggering recessions here and abroad. The S&P 500 proceeded with a panic selloff on Thursday and Friday for a total price change of -10.52%. That is the biggest decline since ...
Financial markets traded largely on a reprieve from the prior weeks’ selling. As a result, foreign stocks and bonds sold off and buying was directed to US stocks and bonds. The Fed helped that sentiment saying that tariff inflation can be transitory and it still expects two more rate cuts sometime this year. Meanwhile, the hard economic data showed manufacturing still....
Monthly Commentary
From the April doom and gloom on tariffs, tariff headlines in May spurred a strong financial market rally. It started with the Mid-may announcement that the US and China suspended their triple digit tariffs for 90 days. Then, in the last week of May, the US Court of International Trade struck down many of the administration’s tariffs. Never mind the next day an Appeals Court put a stay on that ruling until....
The month opened with a bang. President Trump announced “Liberation Day” on April 2nd with the unveiling of a new regimen of reciprocal tariffs. They were much broader and more severe than anticipated. If the President wanted to get the world’s attention that he was serious about reordering the global trade landscape, he succeeded. The S&P 500 promptly declined -9.05% that week with....
Tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. That pretty much dominated the economic news, leading to a crescendo of panic over uncertainty. That culminated in a large selloff on the last Friday of the month in reaction (overreaction) to an otherwise benign inflation report and reaffirmation of an earlier in the month estimate of the March Consumer Sentiment Survey (which we consider a whimsical, headline reacting indicator). Meanwhile, the economy looks to be....
Financial markets are high priced in an environment of rapidly shifting fiscal policy, which makes them susceptible to quick emotional reactions to headlines. Markets shrugged off upticks in inflation to post gains through mid-month. The following week they focused on marginal economic indicators to suggest the economy might be headed into a recession and proceed to a substantial....
We now have two rotating market fetishes, Fed Rate Tantrum and Trump Trade Tantrum. They were both on full display this month. Early in the month, the December Jobs Report came in at a much stronger adjusted 248,000 new jobs versus 212,000 the prior month. That triggered the Fed Rate Tantrum (a sizable stock and bond market sell-off) on the fear that a much stronger economy not only might......
There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....