More dire Iran War headlines whipsawed the markets, leading to a substantial negative week for the S&P 500. However, some interesting developments occurred below the surface. First, US Small Caps posted a fractional “gain” for the week. Secondly, Industrial Metals posted a sizable “gain” for the week. Finally, the price for West Texas Intermediate Crude did not rise again and, in fact, closed at the exact same level as two weeks ago......
Weekly Commentary
Monthly Commentary
List of Services
Despite the politicking about the Iran War and the price of gasoline, financial markets seem to be viewing those as “transitory events”. The real economic news is providing support for that view. Manufacturing is continuing to register improved growth, while the services sector is holding onto moderate growth. Housing is reinforcing the existence of strong underlying demand, despite the challenges in supply and stubbornly higher......
The financial markets told President Trump he does not have unlimited time to end the Iran War and open the Strait of Hormuz. With his trip to China concluding on last Friday and no announcement of a firm agreement with China on how to reopen the Strait, the bond market ran out of patience. Now it has begun to price higher oil prices for longer. That inflation fear shot up interest rates on bonds globally.....
Renewed optimism on the latest developments in the Iran War allowed financial markets to focus on economic fundamentals. The April Jobs Report helped cement the view that the economy is in solid shape. That further encouraged the recent resurgence in the AI trade technology rally, along with significant earnings reports from key tech companies integral to the AI infrastructure build out. Overseas, China and Brazil reported solid.....
US economic news reported more upward momentum in manufacturing, a housing market that is plugging along, a steady jobs market and a still solid consumer. Yet there remains an uneasy tension in the financial markets around the Iran War between the extension of the ceasefire and the continuation of the naval blockade. That tension drove up oil prices which drove down the business outlook in Germany and Japan.....
The Iran War continued to drive financial markets. The markets were trending up from the ceasefire announcement two weeks ago, when Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, and President Trump announced the US naval blockade would remain in place. That set off an explosive rally with the Dow Jones Industrials gaining 868 points or 1.79%. The economic news showed more.....
The Iran War again drove the financial markets. This time it was Tuesday’s announcement by President Trump of an agreed cease fire for peace negotiations. Economically sensitive sectors in Equities, Bonds and Commodities rallied. The economic news mattered in that it reinforced the picture of a solid economy going into the War. The manufacturing rebound continued, the services sector is still solid and there was generally good news.....
More dire Iran War headlines whipsawed the markets, leading to a substantial negative week for the S&P 500. However, some interesting developments occurred below the surface. First, US Small Caps posted a fractional “gain” for the week. Secondly, Industrial Metals posted a sizable “gain” for the week. Finally, the price for West Texas Intermediate Crude did not rise again and, in fact, closed at the exact same level as two weeks ago......
The Iran War understandably dominated market sentiment last week. Furthermore, there is an understandable sensitivity and fear of a drawn-out war after 20 years in Afghanistan. However, talk about “the growing risk of a widening and drawn out war threatening the US economy and raising warnings of stagflation”, “setting off a race from Wall Street to Main Street for shelter from what many fear could be a doomsday scenario for the global.....
Monthly Commentary
What the Iran War taketh away in March, it giveth in April. A declared ceasefire and Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open sent stock and bond markets on a fierce rally. Solid US economic news gave the rally a strong underpinning. Manufacturing reported consistent and increasing growth. The services sectors are still solid. The jobs market is still steady. The housing market shows solid underlying ....
As might be expected, the Iran War dominated the headlines, and the headlines dominated the financial markets. Meanwhile, we do not see the economy showing any ill effects from the war and from the surge in oil prices. Manufacturing continues its slow and steady rebound, the services sector is still solid, the consumer is holding...
The market volatility masked solid underlying economic data and strong performance from more economically sensitive asset classes. Perhaps most importantly for the economy is a solid rebound in manufacturing while the services sector remains...
The month started out with a bang with US Small Cap Equities far outperforming US Large Cap based upon bullish sentiment for the US economy and expectations for further rate cuts from an incoming new Federal Reserve Chairman in May. The economic data supported that bullish sentiment. Manufacturing looks to be at the beginning stages of a rebound. The services economy remained steady.....
Two themes dominated financial market action throughout the year. It started out with a sell off in technology stocks tied to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade, prompted by the announcement of Chinese company DeepSeek’s new AI technology. With AI stocks priced for perfection, they were vulnerable to any challenges to their future assumptions. Then in March, talk of tariffs resurfaced with the upcoming Liberation Day unveiling of Trump’s new tariff policy, which promptly....
After months of warning signals about a potential bubble from the announcements of escalating Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments (Cap Ex), technology stocks finally sold off. Interestingly, another bubble concern sold off with crypto currencies suffering double digit losses. Perhaps the extended government shutdown provided the catalyst for the sell off. Meanwhile, the economy continues to move forward...
More Artificial Intelligence (AI) deals were the primary driver of the US stock market’s rally for the month. The second catalyst was a better than expected September CPI report. The Federal Reserve did cut its Fed Fund rate at the end of the month by the widely expected 0.25%, which propped up the AI rally but did little for the rest of the market. Overseas, two new trade deals were announced on October 29th with South Korea and China, perhaps too....
The economy remained in a steady, modest growth mode. Likewise, inflation, while not posting further declines, also is not rising despite ongoing concerns over tariffs. That left the door open for the real driver of the financial markets, a Fed rate cut. Though the 0.25% (aka 25 basis points or 25 bps) reduction was much anticipated, it stoked optimism for further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the momentum trade for artificial intelligence (AI)....
The economic data showed the US economy holding steady with moderate growth. It also signaled further reductions in inflation have stalled, but we see no noticeable increase in inflation from tariffs. The big market moving news came courtesy of Fed Chairman Powell. In a speech on Friday August 22 from the Economic Policy Forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he signaled the green light was on for rate cuts to begin in September. ....
There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....