The economy remained in a steady, modest growth mode. Likewise, inflation, while not posting further declines, also is not rising despite ongoing concerns over tariffs. That left the door open for the real driver of the financial markets, a Fed rate cut. Though the 0.25% (aka 25 basis points or 25 bps) reduction was much anticipated, it stoked optimism for further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the momentum trade for artificial intelligence (AI)....
Weekly Commentary
Monthly Commentary
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Economic data releases really reaffirmed the strength in the US economy. Manufacturing and services sectors moved to new highs. They also reported sharp increases in employment, at a pace not seen for over four years. Weekly Jobless Claims showed employers not willing to let go of employees. Overseas, business activity surveys reported steady growth in Germany, UK, Japan and India. Yet, US headlines ...
It was another week of strong economic news. The manufacturing rebound is still strong, the jobs market is reporting extremely low Jobless Claims and Retail Sales were strong for the month of August and on a year-over-year basis. You wouldn’t know any of that from the headlines which were all about the price of gas and the Fed raising rates by 0.25%. Overseas, the consumer also looks still solid in Japan, Germany and Brazil.....
Upward price pressure on oil from an extended Iran War put further upward price pressure on Treasury Bond yields. It also increased, if that is possible, the frenzied speculation for a September rate hike. That raised the specter of an ultimate economic slowdown, or worse, stagflation. The August CPI Report showed an uptick in monthly headline and core inflation; however, year over year headline......
The strength of the economy was on full display last week. Manufacturing demonstrated sustained solid growth while the services sector power ed to a new high. A powerful August Jobs Report of 162,000 new jobs plus a revision of the prior two months by an additional 55,000 jobs put an exclamation point on that growth picture. Unfortunately, an old sentiment emerged....
It was a light week for economic data. That left lots of room for focus on the new Fed Chairman’s speech from Jackson Hole. The interest rate hike hawks quickly interpreted his remarks to signal he will raise rates in September, or at a minimum, he is not afraid of President Trump and will do the right thing when necessary. That led to a resumed rally in the Dollar with an uptick in the key 10 Year Treasury Bond yield. That also led to an interesting downtick in the 30 Year Treasury Bond yield. That action historically signals....
The US Treasury announced it would at least double the amount of its longer-term Treasury Bond purchases in an attempt to moderate interest rate pressure from the rise in oil prices due to the Iran War. There was also good news from the manufacturing and services sectors on inflation. Despite very strong growth numbers for August, input cost inflation dropped to its lowest level since the start of the.....
There will be no Weekly Commentary for the week ended 8/14/2026. Please keep an eye out for our upcoming issue next week.
The latest twist in the Iran War brought down the price of oil. The July Jobs Report was much weaker than expected, reporting a loss of 23,000 jobs with downward revisions for the prior two months of 103,000 fewer jobs. That took the possibility of a Fed rate hike in September pretty much off the table. Both events helped drive down yields on US Treasuries which, in turn, reignited the bullish outlook .....
The economy continues to show resilience despite the back and forth Iran War headlines. Manufacturing is reporting increasing strength in July, which is contributing to a similar increase in business sentiment. The consumer sentiment is steady as reflected in strong June Retail Sales. While energy prices continue to whipsaw headline inflation, the June “core” CPI came in at 0.0% versus 0.2% versus the prior month......
Monthly Commentary
The Fed watching game played out in a frenzy of parsing every word from the new Fed Chairman Warsh. A weak July Jobs Report and a slowdown in July Retail Sales beat back the drum beat for a September rate hike. Then the hawks jumped on Warsh’s speech from Jackson Hole and presto, through tortured reasoning, a rate hike in September was back on the table. With that, in the last week of the month, traders wiped out....
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was apparently not well understood. Iran went back to harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US resumed military strikes in Iran and oil prices predictably spiked. That led Treasury Bond yields to rise which hammered US Interest sensitive Bonds and popped the bubble on the AI trade. Yet the economic news remained quite bullish with manufacturing...
The real economic news showed the economy was still in steady growth mode including solid job hirings. Treasury Bond yields declined for the month which affirmed that oil price inflation is indeed transient. The chaos in the headlines really had more to do with concerns over the profitability of the massive AI buildout and trying to support the last two months S&P 500 rally on the back of the AI trade. Overseas, despite the earlier concerns ...
Continuing enthusiasm for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade coupled with a steady stream of solid economic news, helped financial markets to mostly look past the Iran War. Positive comments from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent in the final week of the month regarding progress in the Iran War negotiations, further helped markets look past the War. Overseas, China and Brazil reported positive.....
What the Iran War taketh away in March, it giveth in April. A declared ceasefire and Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open sent stock and bond markets on a fierce rally. Solid US economic news gave the rally a strong underpinning. Manufacturing reported consistent and increasing growth. The services sectors are still solid. The jobs market is still steady. The housing market shows solid underlying ....
As might be expected, the Iran War dominated the headlines, and the headlines dominated the financial markets. Meanwhile, we do not see the economy showing any ill effects from the war and from the surge in oil prices. Manufacturing continues its slow and steady rebound, the services sector is still solid, the consumer is holding...
The market volatility masked solid underlying economic data and strong performance from more economically sensitive asset classes. Perhaps most importantly for the economy is a solid rebound in manufacturing while the services sector remains...
The month started out with a bang with US Small Cap Equities far outperforming US Large Cap based upon bullish sentiment for the US economy and expectations for further rate cuts from an incoming new Federal Reserve Chairman in May. The economic data supported that bullish sentiment. Manufacturing looks to be at the beginning stages of a rebound. The services economy remained steady.....
The economy remained in a steady, modest growth mode. Likewise, inflation, while not posting further declines, also is not rising despite ongoing concerns over tariffs. That left the door open for the real driver of the financial markets, a Fed rate cut. Though the 0.25% (aka 25 basis points or 25 bps) reduction was much anticipated, it stoked optimism for further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the momentum trade for artificial intelligence (AI)....
There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....