There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....
Weekly Commentary
Monthly Commentary
List of Services
Finally, tariffs provided an excuse for a market rally. Last Wednesday President Trump said the China tariffs were not going to be as high as the pending 145%. On Friday, he also stated the US is “very close” to a tariff deal with Japan. Some added comfort came from Trump stating that he had no intention......
With the exception of manufacturing sentiment, the economic news painted a picture of a still stable economy. Housing is holding steady at its yearlong pace, employment is solid with very low unemployment claims and there were further signs of.......
Tariffs again dominated the news and financial market action last week. The source of the massive US stock market rally was Trump’s 90- day pause for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, positive economic news came in the form of inflation numbers. The March CPI reported -0.1% versus 0.2% the prior month and 2.4% versus 2.8% year over year the prior month. The March Producer Price Index (PPI) reported -0.4% versus 0.1% the prior month.........
The focus on tariffs in March took full center stage last week with the April 2nd (after trading hours) announcement of President Trump’s Liberation Day formal tariff plan. The tariffs were much broader and deeper than expected which cemented fears of a global trade war triggering recessions here and abroad. The S&P 500 proceeded with a panic selloff on Thursday and Friday for a total price change of -10.52%. That is the biggest decline since ...
Financial markets traded largely on a reprieve from the prior weeks’ selling. As a result, foreign stocks and bonds sold off and buying was directed to US stocks and bonds. The Fed helped that sentiment saying that tariff inflation can be transitory and it still expects two more rate cuts sometime this year. Meanwhile, the hard economic data showed manufacturing still....
The Trump “shock-and-awe” wave of new policy initiatives is weighing on sentiment and the stock market. February and March Small Business and Consumer Sentiment indicators declined again from their previous month. Not even good inflation reports on February CPI and PPI could lift the stock market out of its sour mood. Overseas, the EU is moving forward....
Despite solid economic news from the manufacturing and services sectors and from the February Jobs Report, the financial markets could not deal with the latest round of tariff headlines. On Tuesday, the deadline passed and the new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China took effect. On Wednesday, President Trump paused tariffs on some autos. Finally, on Thursday he paused....
Economic worries rattled the financial markets at the end of the week. A preliminary report on business conditions for February showed the services sector had slipped into a slight contraction (although the manufacturing sector had a slight increase in its recent expansion). January Existing Home Sales were -4.9% for the month, though this could have been due severe weather and a rise. ...
The week was dominated by inflation news that was, on net, disappointing. The January CPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.4% the prior month and 3.0% versus 2.90% year over year versus the prior month; “core” CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.2% the prior month and 3.3% versus 3.2% year over year the prior month; energy and shelter costs were the drivers...
Monthly Commentary
Tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. That pretty much dominated the economic news, leading to a crescendo of panic over uncertainty. That culminated in a large selloff on the last Friday of the month in reaction (overreaction) to an otherwise benign inflation report and reaffirmation of an earlier in the month estimate of the March Consumer Sentiment Survey (which we consider a whimsical, headline reacting indicator). Meanwhile, the economy looks to be....
Financial markets are high priced in an environment of rapidly shifting fiscal policy, which makes them susceptible to quick emotional reactions to headlines. Markets shrugged off upticks in inflation to post gains through mid-month. The following week they focused on marginal economic indicators to suggest the economy might be headed into a recession and proceed to a substantial....
We now have two rotating market fetishes, Fed Rate Tantrum and Trump Trade Tantrum. They were both on full display this month. Early in the month, the December Jobs Report came in at a much stronger adjusted 248,000 new jobs versus 212,000 the prior month. That triggered the Fed Rate Tantrum (a sizable stock and bond market sell-off) on the fear that a much stronger economy not only might......
The month saw economic activity remaining much as it has been. Manufacturing remained in contraction, housing is holding on despite higher mortgage rates (though inventories of unsold new homes are swollen), retail sales remain at modest levels and job growth continued to moderate. The big drivers of...
The month began with panic over a likely impending recession. A very weak August Jobs Report _ 142,000 new jobs versus 89,000 the prior month but, after significant revisions down to the prior two months, the adjusted number for August was ...
There has been much concern in society at large, and the financial markets in particular, about the escalation of
geopolitical tensions between China and the US. These tensions have centered primarily around the increasing
rhetoric and saber rattling over Taiwan’s statehood status. Chinese equities remain.....