Let’s talk inflation. Several measures reported last week. We believe the culprit is clear - energy. That is primarily coming from the Iran War. Even though oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz is now up to approximately 80% to 92% of prewar levels, traders are still putting a premium on oil due to uncertainty over a long-term solution. Even with that, September Core CPI came in at 2.6% year over year, hardly a threatening level. Adding to the fear of another Fed rate hike was escalating concern that higher borrowing costs might slow down the significant AI investments. Interesting twist from previous fears that the AI investments might prove to not justify the profits from them. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to flex its mojo and small business sentiment .... (click for more)

The real economy is defying consumer sentiment. The manufacturing sector’s growth is accelerating at a strong level. The services sector’s growth is also accelerating at a strong level. The August Jobs Report showed 162,000 new jobs; when adjusted for upward revisions to the prior two months’ reported jobs, the number is a very strong 217,000 new jobs. In watching “what they do, not what they say”, August Core Retail Sales came in at a very strong 5.6% versus 4.7% the prior month, year over year. However, inflation is driving the headlines and market sentiment. While energy costs are the obvious culprit, August Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index declined to 2.4% and 2.7% (adjusted for prior month’s revision), respectively, suggesting underlying inflation is moving...... (click for more)