The financial markets told President Trump he does not have unlimited time to end the Iran War and open the Strait of Hormuz. With his trip to China concluding on last Friday and no announcement of a firm agreement with China on how to reopen the Strait, the bond market ran out of patience. Now it has begun to price higher oil prices for longer. That inflation fear shot up interest rates on bonds globally. That, in turn, took down equity markets globally. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a tiny positive fractional return on the back of the good old AI trade and the economic cycle safety refuge from large growth companies. The actual economic news showed a still steadily growing US economy and some business upticks in select foreign economies. While inflation data remained..... (click for more)

What the Iran War taketh away in March, it giveth in April.  A declared ceasefire and Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open sent stock and bond markets on a fierce rally. Solid US economic news gave the rally a strong underpinning. Manufacturing reported consistent and increasing growth. The services sectors are still solid. The jobs market is still steady. The housing market shows solid underlying demand, although not fully met with supply. For all the hysteria about inflation from the rise in oil prices, pre-war inflation was in good shape. Overseas, Germany and Japan showed some stresses from higher oil prices but, otherwise, global business activity was steady. The S&P 500 ended the month at a very strong 10.42% with Foreign Developed at... (click for more)