One of the financial markets’ favorite obsessions came back into the spotlight; Fed Watching. The occasion was the first press conference of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. While there were some interesting new operational changes announced, the markets chose to focus on their recent speculation for interest rate “hikes”. Toward that end, nine of the Fed governors speculated there could be one rate “hike” before year end; eight speculated there could be one rate “cut”; one (Chairman Warsh) declined to offer a speculation, as he is not a fan of the so called “dot-plot” game. No matter, the financial markets jumped on this to reup their obsession with a rate hike, even though oil has continued to fall substantially from its early Iran War high and is now below..... (click for more)

Continuing enthusiasm for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade coupled with a steady stream of solid economic news, helped financial markets to mostly look past the Iran War. Positive comments from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent in the final week of the month regarding progress in the Iran War negotiations, further helped markets look past the War. Overseas, China and Brazil reported positive upgrades in business activity with Japan showing improvement in consumer spending. The S&P 500 ended the month up 5.15% with Foreign Developed at 3.07% and Emerging Markets at 9.69%, the latter reflecting the rally in chip stocks related to the AI trade.  In the US, Large Caps outperformed Small Caps, while Growth outperformed Value, both of which were.... (click for more)